Bitcoin's hashrate is still hot, despite lower prices and recent difficulty increases. Blocks are being discovered at a faster rate than the 10-minute block interval average, and this could mean that the reward halving event for Bitcoin may be sooner than anticipated. Some halving calculators that rely on the ten-minute average indicate the halving will occur in May or April 2024. However, halving software that uses precise block interval times shows the event could take place as early as March 2024.
Block Intervals show that the halving date could be closer than most people expect
The Merge is the focus of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. However, hashpower behind Bitcoin has been much higher than normal, which has caused block intervals to speed up. At the moment, there are 244.62 exahashes per second (EH/s), dedicated to blockchain. On September 4, 2022 it reached a lifetime high of 301.45 EH/s block height 752,510.
Bitcoin.com News reported that Bitcoin's block times were much faster than the average ten-minute block time. The difficulty will rise if block times are greater than the ten minute average and continue to be faster in the two weeks before a difficulty change.
This is what happened on August 31st, when Bitcoin network posted the second largest difficulty rise in 2022. This difficulty increase didn't slow down miners and the next difficulty change expected to occur on September 15 is expected to increase by more than 3 percent.
Block times are much faster than the ten minute interval. On September 11, the average block speed was less than eight minutes. The block discovery speed has meant that the Bitcoin network halving may happen a lot sooner than expected. The estimate is based only on data and speeds right now and could change indefinitely.
According to bitcoinsensus.com data and metrics from nicehash.com, Bitcoin's fourth halving will occur in March 2024. This date is far earlier than the May 3, 2024 estimate. It uses a ten minute block interval to calculate the date.
Bitcoinsensus.com actually shows two counters. One is based upon current block times (8.50 minutes) and the other on an average block time of ten minutes each block. Based on block times, Bitcoinsensus.com predicts that March 2nd 2024 will be the current halving date. Instead of 598 days, the Bitcoin block-halving date is 509 days away.
Nicehash.com's Halving Counter shows that the date could be March 1, 2024. This is one day before bitcoinsensus.com's estimate. The block reward is halved every time 210,000 blocks have been mined.
Block reward at the moment is 6.25 BTC per blocks. Miners will receive 3.125 coins per block after the next halving. The price could rise sooner than expected if there is a closer halving. This is because bitcoin's value tends to increase before the block reward halving.
How do you feel about the Bitcoin block halving happening sooner than anticipated? Please comment below to let us know your thoughts on this topic.
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By: Jamie Redman
Title: Current Block Times Suggest Bitcoin’s Halving Is Coming Sooner Than Expected
Sourced From: news.bitcoin.com/current-block-times-suggest-bitcoins-halving-is-coming-sooner-than-expected/
Published Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2022 14:00:27 +0000
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